双语阅读｜美国海上风电终迎新发展

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THE FUTURE of clean energy depends on meetings like the one held at a small hotel in a small city in Massachusetts last month. Residents of New Bedford came together to voice their opinions about an offshore wind proposal from a company called Vineyard Wind. To date, such projects have not fared well in America; opponents have blocked big offshore wind farms. But opposition has dwindled. Though lobstermen fretted about local crustacea, supporters of the project in New Bedford touted the new jobs that would be on offer. Bureaucrats overseeing the plan offered heart-shaped chocolates at the sign-in table. If Vineyard Wind secures the necessary approvals, the project would be, astonishingly, America’s first large offshore wind farm. Construction could begin by the end of the year.

美国马萨诸塞州新贝德福德城的一家小旅馆里上月举办了一个会议，而类似这样的会议正决定着清洁能源的未来。这个小城的居民们聚集在一起各抒己见，讨论葡园之风（Vineyard Wind）公司提出的海上风电项目。到目前为止，类似的项目在美国进展得都不顺利；反对者甚至封锁了一些大型海上风力发电场。反对声浪也因而渐渐减退。虽然龙虾养殖者担心发电厂会对当地的甲壳类动物造成不良影响，但支持者们极力宣扬该项目将带来新的工作机会，该项目的政府监管官员甚至在会议签到处提供心型巧克力。如果葡园之风（Vineyard Wind）项目获得所需的批准，那该项目将因成为美国第一个大型海上风力发电站而名声大噪。工程建设可能在今年年底前开始。

After nearly two decades of fighting, the wind industry is poised to sweep into American waters. In February a number of European energy giants, including Royal Dutch Shell, EDF, Equinor and Orsted, bid to build New York’s first offshore wind project, with a decision due this spring. Other plans are moving forward, from Virginia to New Hampshire. In total, states have sanctioned nearly 17,000 megawatts of offshore wind power. This increase is almost as large as Europe’s entire offshore wind market. Yet America remains perilous for wind developers, not just because of lingering opposition, but owing to a lack of a local supply chain to help with turbine construction. Ports seem inadequate to handle all the work. For global energy firms these are big risks, but they could be more than offset by the potential rewards.

历经近20年的争取，海上风电蓄势以待，准备横扫美国海域。今年2月，荷兰皇家壳牌（Royal Dutch Shell）、法国电力集团（EDF）、挪威国家石油公司（Equinor）以及丹麦沃旭能源（Orsted）等多家欧洲能源巨头参加了纽约州首个海上风电项目的竞标，结果将于今年春季公布。从新罕布什尔州到弗吉尼亚州，其他一些项目规模也正在向前推进。美国各州总共正式批准了近17000兆瓦的海上风力发电项目。美国市场的增幅几乎与整个欧洲海上风电市场的规模相当。不过，对于风电场发电商来说，美国市场依旧危机四伏，不仅反对的声音依旧挥之不去，美国缺少本地的供应链去支持涡轮机的建设，港口本身似乎也不足以应对所有事情。对于全球能源公司来说，这些都是巨大的风险，但也可能会被潜在的收益所抵消。

More than 4,000 wind turbines already twirl off the coasts of Europe. In America, just five short turbines poke out of the waves near Rhode Island, despite the north-east’s shallow waters, high wind speeds and millions of energy-hungry consumers. America’s most famous offshore wind project remains one never built. Cape Wind, proposed in 2001, spent 16 years battling fishermen and rich landowners, including the Kennedy family, whose concern over climate change did not dull their desire for an unspoilt view. Faced with such headaches, wind developers invested in Europe or sought firm ground in America’s Midwest, home to big gusts and residents accustomed to using land for both pleasure and purpose.

欧洲海岸线上有四千多台风机投入运营。相比之下，尽管美国东北部水域较浅、风速较快，有数百万能源需求旺盛的消费者，但仅有罗德岛（Rhode Island）附近五台小型风机在运作。美国最著名的海上风电项目“海角风力发电”至今尚未开工。该项目自2001年被提议至今，16年来开发商一直无法与渔民以及肯尼迪（Kennedy）家族等富有的岛主谈妥。这些人虽然也关心全球气候变化，但相比之下，却更加重视一览无遗的开阔视野。面对这一僵局，开发商们将目光转向欧洲或是美国中西部地区，因为这些地方不仅是劲风之源，而且居民更是惯于将土地兼用于娱乐和其他实务功能。

On firm ground

在坚实的地面上

Among the things that have changed is technology. Operators are now able to build bigger turbines that can be sited farther from shore. And because turbines have become so large and powerful, firms need to install fewer of them to generate the same amount of electricity, which lowers development costs. Vineyard Wind plans to supply electricity to Massachusetts at 6.5 cents per kilowatt hour, which—though helped by a generous federal tax credit—is about the same price as electricity from German offshore wind farms.

不断发生变化的形势之中，科技也在变化。现在项目运营商能够在离岸更远的区域建造更大型的风力涡轮机。这些涡轮体型更大、发电效率更高，寥寥几架风机就能产生与之前相同的电量，成本也随之降低。得益于优惠的联邦税收减免政策，葡园之风（Vineyard Wind）项目将以每千瓦时6.5美分的价格向马萨诸塞州供电，价格与德国海上风力发电站电价大致相当。

State policies are boosting the industry, too. North-eastern governors are keen to burnish their green credentials to voters concerned about climate change, but the region has little room for big solar or wind farms on land. Massachusetts passed a law in 2016 requiring state utilities to procure about 1,600 megawatts in offshore wind power over the next decade, provided they receive reasonable bids. Other governors in the north-east have followed suit, becoming more bullish after Vineyard Wind’s announcement of low electricity prices. So far, President Donald Trump’s administration has been supportive.

各州政策也促进了风电产业的发展。比如，东北部的州长们就热衷于以“绿色发展”自我标榜，以获取关心气候变化的民众的选票。然而，东北部并没有足够的土地供太阳能或风能电厂建设。2016年，马萨诸塞州通过一项法律，要求各州公共事业部门在报价合理的前提下，在未来十年海上风电装机容量达到1600兆瓦特左右。东北部州长也纷纷效仿，在葡园之风（Vineyard Wind）宣布实行低电价后，他们显得更加乐观。到目前为止，特朗普政府对这些政策表示支持。

The result is a frenzy. When, in 2015, the government auctioned a site off the Massachusetts coast, the winning bid was $281,285—“a very clear indicator of a market that was basically dead”, says Thomas Brostrom, who leads the North American business for Orsted, a Danish energy firm. In the latest auction in Massachusetts, in December, each lease sold for over 400 times that sum. European developers are battling it out, some adopting all-American names. In Massachusetts, for instance, Orsted’s subsidiary is Bay State Wind; Vineyard Wind is a partnership of Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners and a subsidiary of Spain’s Iberdrola, and Mayflower Wind is a joint venture between Shell and EDP Renewables, whose headquarters are in Madrid. EnBW, a German utility, is bidding along the east coast but is also eyeing waters off California (where the steep continental shelf will need floating turbines that have yet to be deployed at scale).

风电投资狂潮随之而起。2015，美国政府以281,285美元的成交价拍卖出马萨诸塞州一块海域。对此价格，丹麦沃旭能源北美区负责人托马斯·布罗斯特罗姆 (Thomas Brostrom)表示，“很显然，美国新能源市场前景黯淡”。然而，去年12月在马萨诸塞州最近一次的拍卖会上，每片海域的租金都以超过之前400倍的价格成交。欧洲开发商都在奋力争取租赁区，有的甚至为此采用全美式命名。以马萨诸塞州为例，Bay State Wind是沃旭能源（Orsted）的子公司; 葡园之风是哥本哈根基础设施公司（CIP）与西班牙电力公司Iberdrola的子公司共同合作的公司；五月花风力（Mayflower Wind）是壳牌与EDPR的合资企业，其总部设在西班牙马德里。德国公共事业电力公司Enbw不仅参与了美国东海岸风电海域的竞标，而且也盯着加州离岸海域（加州陆架陡峭，需要尚未被大规模运用的漂浮式的风力发电机）。

Despite enthusiastic governors, companies must still secure leases and contracts to sell electricity to utilities. Orsted, for one project, anticipates needing more than 20 permits and approvals from federal, state and local agencies. It has spent $510m to acquire Deepwater Wind, one of the few American offshore developers, in part to help it deal with complex regulations.

尽管各州州长热情高涨，各大公司仍需取得各种租约签好各式合同，方能向地方公共事业出售电力。对丹麦沃旭（Orsted）而言, 仅一个风能项目，就需联邦政府、州政府以及地级机构开具各类许可证以及批准证明20多份。沃旭（Orsted）斥资5.1亿美元并购了美国深水风力公司（Deep water Wind）（美国屈指可数的几家离岸开发商之一），其中部分目的是协助其应对各项繁杂的本土管理规定条例。

Even if firms manage all that, other factors threaten to push up costs. The region has no big turbine manufacturers, so firms must pay to transport parts from Europe. A 99-year-old law means that they cannot use European ships that are specially designed to install turbines. No such American ship yet exists. There are insufficient ports to handle the heavy components needed for turbines. And an investment tax credit for wind is due to expire in 2020. States are rushing to hold auctions this year, but inevitably many projects will come too late to use the credit. That may lift the price of electricity from wind projects.

即使企业处理好了所有这些事务，也还有另一些因素会导致成本增加。美国海岸没有大型发电机制造商，就必须承担从欧洲进口相关部件的运费。然而，有一项法律效力长达99年的（欧洲）条款规定，他们不能使用特制的欧洲船只运载发电机，而类似的美国船只尚不存在。此外，巨大而沉重的发电机零部件也没有足够的港口来安置。风能生产税抵减法案即将在2020年到期，因而美国各州都在争先恐后地举行拍卖。但不可避免的是，许多尚未成交的项目未来将无权享有这一法案带来的优惠。这可能会导致由风能发电的电价上涨。

Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, expects growth in offshore wind to subside after the tax credit expires, then pick up again in the mid-2020s as technology advances and factories open in America. States are vying to support the industry’s future growth. “My goal is to make Massachusetts the Denmark of North American wind,” says Stephen Pike, who leads the state’s efforts to promote a green economy.

能源咨询顾问公司伍德·麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）预测：税收减免政策终止之后，海上风力发电项目的增速将会放缓；至本世纪20年代中期，随着技术的发展和美国境内相关工厂的开工，增速会再次抬头。各州也在竞相支持该行业的未来增长。“我的目标是将马萨诸塞州打造成为北美风力发电界的丹麦。” 斯蒂芬·派克（Stephen Pike）说道。他领导并推动马萨诸塞州朝着绿色经济的方向拓进。

In the meantime, Vineyard Wind is advancing its project, step by step. In January the company signed an agreement with the Natural Resources Defense Council, promising, among other things, to time construction to avoid disturbing the endangered North Atlantic right whale. It recently hammered out a deal with fishermen in Rhode Island, who remain concerned about the turbines’ effect. Lars Pedersen, chief executive of Vineyard Wind, remains optimistic. “It’s a challenging regulatory system, it’s litigious and so on, but if you can deliver jobs and clean energy at an affordable price,” he says, “I believe this is a huge opportunity.”

与此同时，葡园之风正在逐步推进其项目。一月，该公司与自然资源保护协会签署了一份协议，承诺定时施工以避免打扰 濒临灭绝的北大西洋露脊鲸。罗德岛渔民们对海上的涡轮机有所担心，而该公司近期也正与他们反复商讨应对之策。葡园之风的执行总裁拉尔斯·彼德森（Lars Pedersen）对此依然保持乐观。他说道：“虽然风电产业对现行的监管制度是一种挑战，很容易引发诉讼，但是如果能够带来工作岗位，提供价格合理的清洁能源，我相信这是一次巨大的机会。”

编译：徐可心

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2019.03.07）

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